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The 2024 Republican Primary: Who Will Win?

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Each day in 2023 inches us closer and closer to the 2024 Presidential election.  There are a lot of different viewpoints circulating on who will actually win, likewise as to who is running and who is the right possible choice.  A few of the political figures with a lot of surrounding press are Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and incumbent Joe Biden.  I would like to shed light on each candidate, as well as explore the views on who will solidify their spot as the Republican candidate.

One of the most controversial political figures, arguably in all of US history, is former president Donald J. Trump.  Along with such strong views and provocative opinions comes people who also have strong views and opinions on him.  He has one of the most loyal supporters out there, but also loyal doubters. Trump has been known to have the support of almost all of the Republican party, seen as the “face” of the party (although not officially).  In fact, this is one of the first times in US history the word republican has been so closely associated with a name.  In the current AP prediction polls, statistics show that Trump has almost double the amount of votes for DeSantis.  Although the results for Trump consolidating his position as the Republican candidate for the 2024 election look promising, there is still technically the possibility of DeSantis taking the lead.  Ron DeSantis is a very educated man: he studied history at Yale and attended Harvard Law School.  This has significant relevance because he has an incredible amount of knowledge on the law and how history has gone down in the past, which is shown in his confident speeches and actions.  But that alone is not enough to change the opinions of die hard Trump loyalists. DeSantis has accomplished a lot for Florida, which shows he is an assertive leader, but those accomplishments might just be his downfall as well. 

Ron DeSantis has signed several controversial laws and made quite a lot of controversial moves in his time as the governor of Florida.  One of the prominent laws he passed was regarding the HB 1557 “Don’t Say Gay” law in schools.  This is the law preventing certain talk about LBGTQ+ in schools.  Regardless of whether or not one believes this is offensive, it certainly takes away mass appeal from any member of the Democratic party looking for an alternative to Biden.

Another controversial law that was passed by DeSantis is the 15 week abortion law.  This prohibits women from getting an abortion past 15 weeks of pregnancy.  DeSantis then passed another that hasn’t garnered the best reaction from the Democratic party: the concealed carry without a permit rule.  This law makes it legal to carry firearms without a permit.  Although this takes away Democratic appeal, in my opinion all of these things can also bring in appeal.  With the “Don’t Say Gay” law, many can argue that sexuality should not be discussed in schools. Many peoples personal belief is that your sexual orientation should never be discussed with anybody in your school’s staff, as that is unprofessional, personal, and not something that should be taught (although learning about the evolution of rights and other things of such is a different story).  Similarly, although some people may view the 15 week abortion bill as restrictive, many argue how it is a good idea because getting abortions towards the end of your pregnancy can be potentially dangerous for the mother.  And regarding the gun control bill, it is your first amendment right, but letting anybody own one of course is commonly argued.  I think what these different viewpoints of the same law shows that these big statement bills he has passed can either severely drives you away from DeSantis or drives you incredibly close to him.  

Now, does that kind of divisive figure remind you of anyone?  Trump.  Trump is also known for having very controversial laws passed and plans implemented.  But what comes with controversy isn’t just conflict; it can also show leadership.  With a leader that is not afraid to make change happen, you have a strong economy.  While Trump gets brutally criticized for his personal life, statistically looking at our economy, we were thriving with him in power.  A lot of people have problems with his immigration policy, but I think that things may change surrounding that.  Right now, in the midst of the terrorist attacks happening with our ally Israel, many would argue need strong borders to keep our country safe. If just anybody can come in, how can you do anything to prevent a well thought out attack?  You can’t.  This doesn’t have to mean there will be any less legal immigration, but many believe that it is important to make sure we aren’t letting just anybody in at this point in time with our allies being attacked, especially with the Day of Jihad being declared on October 13th, shows that the attacks may not be just limited to Israel.  Many people believe that Trump would be a prominent figure in keeping us safe, as he has shown he isn’t afraid to spark some conflict to keep us safe.  Now where this ties into DeSantis is…he is incredibly similar to Trump.  He has conservative views, and most of his fan base in Florida are also strong supporters of Trump.  Now how can he persuade not only the opposite party to vote for him, but also his own party who is primarily associated with Trump and has proven himself relevant to our current events?  His best bet would have been to appeal to both sides, but his actions have been more conservative than Trumps, which may drive away other parties besides the Republicans. I think it will be tough for him to do, but anything is possible. 

So why is this still a such a hot race between Trump and DeSantis?  Two words: indictment and impeachment.  Trump was the third president in the US to have been impeached, and he was first president to be impeached twice.  His first impeachment was on 2 different articles: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.  This was because he was accused of using his power for his own benefit, and also trying to strong arm Congress into not searching/investigating his actions.  The second impeachment was because he was accused of encouraging the violent acts of storming the Capitol building in January of 2021.  He was also very recently indicted for his “hush money” ordeal to cover his tracks of personal encounters.  These offenses are not taken lightly and surely can alter peoples’ opinions on who they should vote for.  I think that these offenses can be what saves DeSantis, but not many people care about the hush money ordeal because it was mostly a personal encounter.  The impeachments, on the other hand, can definitely start a debate.  

From this writer’s view, both Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump have a very strong set of supporters, but it is up to you to decide who you think will solidify their position as the official Republican candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election.  Who would you vote for in the republican primary? Comment below!

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